SARS-CoV-2: A ‘Predatory Virus’ That Raises All-cause Mortality Risk
SARS-CoV-2 is a “predatory virus” that appears to have multiplied the risk of death by a similar amount for most adults in the UK regardless of their underlying health status, according to new research published in PLOS Medicine.
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)-led research team estimated excess mortality in the UK during Wave 1 of the COVID pandemic in nearly 10 million adults aged 40 and over. They then estimated and compared relative rates of all-cause mortality in people with and without more than 50 health and socio-demographic characteristics before the pandemic and during Wave 1.
The rate of death during Wave 1 increased on average by a factor of just over 40% (x1.4) for the study population compared to before the pandemic. This relative increase in the rate of death was surprisingly consistent across much of the population, regardless of health conditions and other characteristics.
However, before the pandemic, those with pre-existing health conditions such as heart disease or asthma had a higher mortality rate than those without a further mortality rate increase of 40% had a bigger absolute impact on them.
Exceptions included those with dementia and learning difficulties; both groups had approximately 3x the rate of death compared to people without the condition before the pandemic but approximately 5x the rate of death compared to people without the condition during Wave 1.
Non-white ethnicities were another exception: black people had 20% reduced rate of death compared to white people before the pandemic but a 50% increase in relative rate of death compared to white people during Wave 1. Also, those living in London also had a lower rate of death before the pandemic compared to people living outside of London, but substantially elevated relative rate during Wave 1.
Researcher co-leader, LSHTM’s Dr Helen Strongman, said: “Our work has shown that the threat posed by COVID increases evenly with frailty or ill health caused by ageing and a wide range of respiratory and non-respiratory medical conditions. This compares to flu, which also tends to be more dangerous in the elderly but also affects young children and is more strongly associated with respiratory conditions such as asthma, COPD and smoking.”
Whilst the health and demographic factors studied are known to be associated both with mortality in non-pandemic years and mortality due to COVID during the pandemic, this is the first time the two have been linked – analysing all-cause mortality rather than COVID-specific mortality.
Dr Strongman said: “As we learn to live with COVID, we all need to be aware of and manage our own risk and that of others around us. Our study shows that SARS-CoV-2 is a predatory virus, amplifying mortality rates across the board, and having the biggest impact on those with existing ill health or who are frail. This emphasises how important it is for everyone to protect themselves and the most vulnerable in society through measures such as vaccination and wearing face masks. However, more basic research about why and how the virus exploits any vulnerability is needed.”
Dr Helena Carreira from LSHTM and co-lead author, added: “While we saw increases in the rate of death during the first wave of the pandemic across the population, our study also reinforced how COVID has disproportionately affected some groups, including people with dementia and learning disabilities, possibly through higher levels of exposure due to institutional or home-based care or occupation.”
Further research is needed to clarify whether there were differences across waves in the UK, especially for ethnicity, deprivation and other factors, and independent effects of individual health and demographic risk factors should be investigated.
Limitations include possible misclassification of the date of death for some individuals and the misclassification of health factors through incomplete information. However, the similarity of the results obtained from sensitivity analyses suggest only a minor impact on their findings.