COVID Eradication is Tough but not Impossible, Study Shows
A new analysis shows that the global eradication of COVID is tough but theoretically more feasible than for polio and less so than it was for smallpox.
The article in BMJ Global Health ranked the feasibility of eradicating the three diseases based on technical, socio-political and economic factors.
Smallpox, which was declared eradicated in 1980, had the highest average score for eradication feasibility. It had an average score of 2.7 on a three-point scale across 17 variables. COVID had an average score of 1.6 which was close to polio’s average score of 1.5.
Professor Nick Wilson from the University of Otago said that their analysis shows COVID’s eradication is feasible.
Vaccination programmes, public health measures and the global interest in combating the disease together contribute to making eradication possible.
“Elimination of COVID-19 at the country level has been achieved and sustained for long periods in various parts of the Asia Pacific region, which suggests that global eradication is possible.”
Vaccination programmes eradicated smallpox and two of the three serotypes of poliovirus, while other diseases are close to eradication. China recently became the 40th country to be certified malaria-free.
In ranking the feasibility of eradication for the three diseases, the researchers incorporated factors including the availability of safe and effective vaccines, the possibility of lifelong immunity, the impact of public health measures, effective infection control messaging by governments, political and public concern about the infection and public acceptance of infection control measures.
While there has been a focus on the need to reach herd immunity to overcome COVID, population immunity may not be essential to combat the disease, as smallpox was eradicated through ring-vaccination programmes which target the contacts of those infected.
The challenges of eradicating COVID relative to smallpox and polio include poor vaccine acceptance in some countries and the emergence of variants of the pandemic virus that may be more transmissible or able to evade the protection from vaccines.
But Professor Wilson said eventually the virus will be reach the limit of more infectious mutations, and so new vaccines will likely be formulated to deal with evolving strains of the disease.
Other obstacles includedthe cost of global vaccination and upgrading health systems, and achieving international cooperation in the face of aggressive anti-science movements and vaccine nationalism.
Professor Wilson says while the virus may infect animal populations, they will note likely hamper eradication.
“Wild animal infections with SARS-CoV-2 appear to be fairly rare to date and when companion animals become infected, they don’t appear to reinfect humans.”
A co-author of the article, Professor Michael Baker from the University’s Department of Public Health, says global concern about the pandemic could be tapped.
“The massive scale of the health, social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in most of the world has generated unprecedented global interest in disease control and massive investment in vaccination programmes.
“Unlike smallpox and polio, control of COVID-19 also benefits from the added impact of public health measures, such as border controls, social distancing, contact tracing and mask wearing, which can be very effective if well deployed.”
Professor Baker says upgrading health systems to target COVID-19 could also help to control other diseases, and could even aid in eradicating measles.
“When all factors are taken into account, it could be that the benefits of eradicating COVID-19 outweigh the costs, even if eradication takes many years and has a significant risk of failure.”
This work is preliminary, the researchers cautioned.
“The World Health Organization or a coalition of national agencies working collaboratively needs to formally review the feasibility and desirability of attempting COVID-19 eradication on a global basis,” Professor Baker says.
The researchers noted it is important to distinguish between eradication of infection, ie the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts; and elimination, ie the reduction to zero of the incidence of infection caused by a specific agent in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts.
COVID elimination has been reached and sustained for long periods in a number of jurisdictions in the Asia-Pacific region (notably China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand), demonstrating that global eradication is technically possible.
Source: EurekAlert!
