Tag: pandemic

Categories : Diseases, Syndromes and ConditionsTags :

The Era of Pandemics: Abbott Partnership to Address Emerging Viral Threats in Africa

On By ModernMedia
Prof Tulio de Oliveira and Dr Mary Rogers
  • Scientists predict that we are entering the era of pandemics.
  • A sustainable global commitment to pandemic preparedness is instrumental to maintaining the upper hand and winning the battle.
  • In collaboration with the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition, CERI unveiled a new genomics facility to help identify, analyse and test infectious diseases in Africa to enable early detection and rapid responses to potential viral threats.  

With the increasing rates of urbanisation, global travel and climate change, infectious disease experts predict the world is entering a new era of pandemics. In response to this, Abbott founded the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition which comprises of 20 scientific and public health organisations from across the globe who are committed to detecting and responding to emerging viral threats.

Since its launch in 2021, the global Coalition has partnered with organisations in Africa to build up the network and capabilities in the region. The Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI) at Stellenbosch University is one of the recent partners, who recently unveiled a new genomics facility that will enable early detection and the rapid response to emerging threats in Africa in collaboration with the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition.

“No one organisation, network or country is strong enough to effectively fight against viral pathogens,” says Mary Rodgers, principal scientist at Abbott’s diagnostics business. “We therefore must have an ongoing global commitment to pandemic preparedness – and key to that is collaboration across the private and public sectors to detect and have a rapid response to emerging threats. Our partnership with CERI will expand testing capacity to continue research in understanding how known viruses are spreading in order to identify new viral outbreaks, so that we can stop them from becoming the next pandemic.”

New Technology to Detect Viral Threats in Africa

The state-of-the-art genomics facility is equipped with new technology such as the Metagenomics Next Generation Sequencing which is revolutionising how viruses are discovered – creating a genome that once took years to complete can now be sequenced and analysed in a day or two. The genomics center will also have access to Abbott’s diagnostics molecular lab testing capabilities to provide fast and scalable molecular testing, as well as provide researchers the ability to create molecular tests for new and emerging viral threats.

Professor Tulio de Oliveira, director of CERI concludes, “The partnership with the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition will help train Africa’s next generation of virus hunters and public health experts in cutting-edge sequencing, bioinformatics, and other technologies so that they can track and identify viruses faster and smarter. The launch of this new genomics facility is a testament to our shared commitment to advancing scientific knowledge and protecting public health in Africa.”

Categories : Diseases, Syndromes and ConditionsTags :

Another COVID-scale Pandemic in 59 Years ‘Statistically Likely’

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Edwin Hooper on Unsplash

A new study based on 400 years of historical records asserts that extreme pandemic events such as COVID are more common than believed.

The Duke University study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, used records of past outbreaks to estimate the intensity of those events and the yearly probability of them recurring.

It found the probability of a pandemic with similar impact to COVID is about 2% in any year, meaning that someone born in the year 2000 by now would have about a 38% chance of experiencing one. That probability is only increasing, highlighting the need to adjust perceptions of pandemic risks and expectations for preparedness, the researchers said.

“The most important takeaway is that large pandemics like COVID and the Spanish flu are relatively likely,” said study co-author William Pan, PhD, associate professor of global environmental health at Duke. The understanding that pandemics are not so rare should raise the priority of future prevention and control efforts, he said.

The study employed new statistical methods to measure the scale and frequency of disease outbreaks for which there was no immediate medical intervention over the past four centuries. Their analysis, including deadly pathogens including plague, smallpox, cholera, typhus and novel influenza viruses, found pandemics occurred with great variability in the past. But they also identified patterns that allowed them to describe the probabilities of similar-scale events happening again.

In the case of a pandemic like the Spanish flu, which killed more than 30 million people between 1918 and 1920, the probability of a pandemic of similar magnitude occurring ranged from 0.3% to 1.9% per year over the time period studied. Taken together, it is statistically likely that such a massive pandemic would occur within the next 400 years.

However, the data also show that the risk of intense outbreaks is increasing rapidly. Based on the increasing rate at which novel pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 have broken loose in human populations in the past 50 years, the study estimates that the probability of novel disease outbreaks will likely triple in the next few decades.

With this increased risk factor, the researchers estimate that a COVID-scale pandemic is likely within a span of 59 years (by the year 2090), a result they write is “much lower than intuitively expected.” Although not included in the paper, they also calculated the probability of a pandemic capable of eliminating all human life, finding it statistically likely within the next 12 000 years. 

That does not mean it will be 59 years before the next COVID-like pandemic, nor that the Spanish flu for another 300 years. Such events are equally probable in any year during the span, said Duke University Professor Gabriel Katul, another of the paper’s authors.

“When a 100-year flood occurs today, one may erroneously presume that one can afford to wait another 100 years before experiencing another such event. This impression is false. One can get another 100-year flood the next year,” explained Prof Katul.

Dr Pan noted that population growth, changes in food systems, environmental degradation and more frequent contact between humans and disease-harboring animals all may be significant factors for increasing frequency of pandemics. However, he stresses that the statistical techniques are not to explain the pandemics.

However, he hopes the study will spark deeper exploration of the factors that may be making devastating pandemics more likely – and how to counteract them.

“This points to the importance of early response to disease outbreaks and building capacity for pandemic surveillance at the local and global scales, as well as for setting a research agenda for understanding why large outbreaks are becoming more common,” Dr Pan said.

Source: Duke University