Tag: life expectancy

Categories : AgeingTags :

Increase in Global Life Expectancy of Nearly 5 Years by 2050

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The latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, published in The Lancet, forecast that global life expectancy will increase by 4.9 years in males and 4.2 years in females between 2022 and 2050.

The largest increases are expected in countries where life expectancy is lower, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, contributing to a convergence of increased life expectancy across geographies. The trend is largely driven by public health measures that have prevented and improved survival rates from cardiovascular diseases, COVID, and a range of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs).

This study indicates that the ongoing shift in disease burden to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like cardiovascular diseases and cancer, and exposure to NCD-associated risk factors, such as obesity and smoking, will have the greatest impact on disease burden of the next generation.

Longer lives, but more years of poor health

As the disease burden continues to shift from CMNNs to NCDs and from years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLDs), more people are expected to live longer, but with more years spent in poor health. Global life expectancy is forecasted to increase from 73.6 years of age in 2022 to 78.1 years of age in 2050 (a 4.5-year increase). Global healthy life expectancy (HALE) – the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health – will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (a 2.6-year increase).

To come to these conclusions, the study forecasts cause-specific mortality; YLLs; YLDs; disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, or lost years of healthy life due to poor health and early death); life expectancy; and HALE from 2022 through 2050 for 204 countries and territories.

“In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen,” said Dr Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). “This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest- and lowest-income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa.”

Dr Murray added that the biggest opportunity to speed up reductions in the global disease burden is through policy interventions aimed to prevent and mitigate behavioural and metabolic risk factors.

These findings build upon the results of the GBD 2021 risk factors study, also released today in The Lancet. This accompanying study found that the total number of years lost due to poor health and early death (measured in DALYs) attributable to metabolic risk factors has increased by 50% since 2000. Read more on the risk factors report at https://bit.ly/GBDRisks2021.

Alternative scenarios for 2050

The study also puts forth various alternative scenarios to compare the potential health outcomes if different public health interventions could eliminate exposure to several key risk factor groups by 2050.

“We forecast large differences in global DALY burden between different alternative scenarios to see what is the most impactful on our overall life expectancy data and DALY forecasts,” said Dr Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the study who leads the GBD Collaborating Unit at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. “Globally, the forecasted effects are strongest for the ‘Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks’ scenario, with a 13.3% reduction in disease burden (number of DALYs) in 2050 compared with the ‘Reference’ (most likely) scenario.”

The authors also ran two more scenarios: one focused on safer environments and another on improved childhood nutrition and vaccination.

“Though the largest effects in global DALY burden were seen from the ‘Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risk’ scenario, we also forecasted reductions in disease burden from the ‘Safer Environment’ and ‘Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination’ scenarios beyond our reference forecast, said Amanda E. Smith, Assistant Director of Forecasting at IHME. “This demonstrates the need for continued progress and resources in these areas and the potential to accelerate progress through 2050.”

“There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioural and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure,” continued Dr Murray.

Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Categories : AgeingTags :

Genetic Predisposition for Muscle Strength may Predict Longer Lifespan

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Photo by Barbara Olsen on Pexels

A study conducted at the University of Jyväskylä showed that a genetic predisposition for higher muscle strength predicts a longer lifespan and a lower risk for developing common diseases. This study, published in The Journals of Gerontology: Series A, is the most comprehensive international study to date on hereditary muscle strength and its relationship to morbidity. The genome and health data of more than 340 000 Finns was used in the research.

Muscle strength, especially hand grip strength, can indicate an individual’s physiological resources to protect against age-related diseases and disabilities, as well as their ability to cope with them. Age-related loss of muscle strength is individual and influenced not only by lifestyle but also by genetics.

The study revealed that individuals with a genetic predisposition for higher muscle strength have a slightly lower risk for common noncommunicable diseases and premature mortality. It did not however predict better survival after acute adverse health events compared to the time before illness onset.  

“It seems that a genetic predisposition for higher muscle strength reflects more on an individual’s intrinsic ability to resist and protect oneself against pathological changes that occur during aging than the ability to recover or completely bounce back after severe adversity,” says doctoral researcher Päivi Herranen from the Faculty of Sport and Health Sciences. 

A unique study population  

Muscle strength is a multifactorial trait influenced by lifestyle and environmental factors but also by numerous genetic variants, each with a very small effect on muscle strength. In this study, the genetic predisposition for muscle strength was defined by constructing a polygenic score for muscle strength, which summarises the effects of hundreds of thousands of genetic variants into a single score. The polygenic score makes it possible to compare participants with an exceptionally high or low genetic predisposition for muscle strength, and to investigate associations with inherited muscle strength and other phenotypes, in this case, common diseases.  

“In this study, we were able to utilise both genetic information and health outcomes from over 340 000 Finnish men and women,” Herranen explains. “To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the association between a genetic predisposition for muscle strength and various diseases on this scale.” 

Further research on the effects of lifestyles is still needed 

Information about the genetic predisposition for muscle strength could be used alongside traditional risk assessment in identifying individuals who are at particularly high risk of common diseases and health adversities. However, further research on the topic is still needed. 

“Based on these results, we cannot say how lifestyle factors, such as physical activity, modify an individual’s intrinsic ability to resist diseases and whether their impact on health differs among individuals due to genetics,” Herranen notes. 

The study utilised the internationally unique FinnGen dataset, compiled through the collaboration of Finnish biobanks. The dataset consisted of 342 443 Finns who had given their consent and provided a biobank sample. The participants were aged 40 to 108 years, and 53% of them were women. The diagnoses selected for the study were based on the leading causes of death and the most significant noncommunicable diseases in Finland. Selected diagnoses included the most common cardiometabolic and pulmonary diseases, musculoskeletal and connective tissue diseases, falls and fractures, mental health and cognitive disorders, cancers, as well as overall mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases. 

Source: University of Jyväskylä

Categories : Environmental EffectsTags :

Climate Change may Reduce Life Expectancy by Half a Year, Study Suggests

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UPDATE: Concerns have been raised about the source of the data used in the study. Details below.

On its own, a 1°C temperature rise might shave off about five months, with women and people in developing nations disproportionately affected.

Photo by Markus Spiske

The cost of climate change may be six months off the average human lifespan, according to a study published January 18, 2024, in the open-access journal PLOS Climate by Amit Roy from Shahjalal University of Science and Technology and The New School for Social Research, US.

Temperature and rainfall – two telltale signals of climate change – cause myriad public health concerns, from the acute and direct (eg, natural disasters like flooding and heat waves) to the indirect yet equally devastating (eg, respiratory and mental illnesses). While impacts like these are observable and well documented, existing research has not established a direct link between climate change and life expectancy.

To clarify this relationship, the author evaluated average temperature, rainfall, and life expectancy data from 191 countries from 1940-2020, using GDP per capita to control for drastic differences between countries.

In addition to measuring the isolated impacts of temperature and rainfall, the author designed a first-of-its-kind composite climate change index, which combines the two variables to gauge the overarching severity of climate change.

Results indicate that in isolation, a global temperature increase of 1°C  is associated with an average human life expectancy decrease of approximately 0.44 years, or about five months and one week. A 10-point increase in the composite climate change index – which accounts for both temperature and rainfall – is expected to decrease the average life expectancy by six months. Women and individuals in developing nations are disproportionately affected.

Beyond the results of this study, Dr Roy is hopeful that the composite climate change index will standardise the global conversation about climate change; become a usable metric for the nonscientific public; and encourage collaboration and even friendly competition among countries to combat the impacts of climate change.

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to a changing environment are of particular importance, the author says.

To complement this large-scale approach, the author suggests localised future studies that consider specific severe weather events (eg, wildfires, tsunamis, and floods), the impacts of which cannot be fully captured through analysing temperature and rainfall alone.

Dr Roy adds: “The global threat posed by climate change to the well-being of billions underscores the urgent need to address it as a public health crisis, as revealed by this study, emphasising that mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and proactive initiatives are essential to safeguard life expectancy and protect the health of populations worldwide.”

IMPORTANT UPDATE: Following publication of the paper referenced below, concerns have been raised about the reliability of global mean annual temperature data that are discussed in the article and used in the study’s analyses. The source of these data is reported as [1] in the article’s Materials and methods section, and as [2] in the Fig 4 legend.

1. World Bank. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) 2023. The World Bank; 2023. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/

2. Akhtar R, Palagiano C. Climate change and air pollution: an introduction. Climate Change and Air Pollution: The Impact on Human Health in Developed and Developing Countries. 2018:3–8.

PLOS Climate is looking into the concerns that have been raised. Meanwhile, readers are advised to interpret this article’s results with caution. You may direct any specific questions to onepress@plos.org. We apologise sincerely for the inconvenience and thank you for your understanding. 

Categories : NeurologyTags :

People with Epilepsy Live Significantly Shorter Lives

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Depiction of a human brain
Image by Fakurian Design on Unsplash

A Danish cohort study published in Brain shows that people with epilepsy live 10-12 years fewer than those without the condition, with a slightly greater reduction for men than women. The study researchers also found that excess mortality is particularly pronounced among people with epilepsy and mental disorders.

One of the most frequently occurring neurological diseases, epilepsy affects 50 million people worldwide, and is known to increase the risk of early death by three times.

“The significantly reduced life expectancy is found both in people who develop epilepsy as a result of an underlying condition, such as brain cancer or stroke, and in those who develop epilepsy without an obvious underlying cause,” explained Julie Werenberg Dreier, one of the researchers behind the study.

The average reduction in life expectancy was 12 years for men with epilepsy and 11 years for women. Among people with epilepsy and mental disorders life expectancy was on average reduced by up to 16 years.

“We discovered that the reduced life expectancy for people with epilepsy was related to a wide range of causes of death which don’t just include the neurological, but also cardiovascular diseases, psychiatric disorders, alcohol related conditions, accidents and suicide,” said Jakob Christensen, one of the researchers behind the study.

Researchers used Danish healthcare register to follow almost six million Danes, including more than 130 000 people with epilepsy.

“The large study has enabled detailed analyses of a range of different causes of death and, for the first time, we’ve been able to estimate the number of years lost due to individual causes of death in people with epilepsy. This is important information as it can be used to target preventive efforts in order to reduce the mortality gap that we currently see in people with epilepsy,” said Julie Werenberg Dreier.

The mortality rate among people with epilepsy is due to a wide range of different conditions that cut across virtually all medical specialities, the researchers said. There is therefore a need for a collective effort to reduce mortality.

“The alarming results provide important knowledge for all healthcare professionals who, in one way or another, come into contact with people with epilepsy — also when prioritising and allocating resources in the healthcare system. The results clearly show how serious a disease epilepsy can be, and the findings of the study should be used in the prioritisation and planning of preventive measures,” said Jakob Christensen, emphasising that the results confirm the tendencies that have been shown in a few smaller studies which have estimated reduction in life expectancy in people with epilepsy.

“The study should be followed up by additional research, for example into the questions of how medical treatment and recurring seizures affect life expectancy.”

Source: Aarhus University