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8 Million People Living with HIV in SA, According to Latest Estimates

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Miguel Á. Padriñán: https://www.pexels.com/photo/syringe-and-pills-on-blue-background-3936368/

By Marcus Low

The number of people living with HIV in South Africa has for the first time reached the eight million mark. Of these, around 6.2 million are on treatment, according to new estimates.

The number of people living with HIV in South Africa continues to rise, surpassing eight million in 2024. This is according to just-released estimates from Thembisa, the leading mathematical model of HIV and TB in South Africa. The eight million amounts to 12.8% of the population.

The continued rise is due to the fact that there are more people becoming newly infected with HIV than there are people with HIV who are dying. The increasing numbers are thus a reflection of the fact that antiretroviral medicines are keeping people alive who would otherwise have died.

There was an estimated 178 000 new HIV infections in 2023/2024 (mid-2023 to mid-2024). Over the same period, around 105 000 people with HIV passed away – 53 000 due to HIV-related causes and 52 000 for reasons not related to HIV.

The estimates of new HIV infections are slightly higher than in last year’s Thembisa publications. According to Dr Leigh Johnson, of the University of Cape Town and the key developer of the Thembisa model, this is mainly due to the model factoring in new evidence that condom usage is declining.

78% treatment coverage

Of the eight million people living with HIV, around 6.2 million, or 78%, were taking antiretroviral treatment in 2024. Around one in five people living with the virus were thus not on treatment. Treatment is recommended for everyone living with HIV.

On the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, also endorsed in South Africa’s National Strategic Plan for HIV, TB and STIs 2023 – 2028, the middle target, helping people start and stay on treatment, continues to be the main area of underperformance. Around 95% of people living with HIV in South Africa knew their status in 2024, around 81.5% of these were on antiretroviral treatment, and of those on treatment, around 92% had viral suppression. (Note that the 78% treatment coverage figure is the product of multiplying the performance on the first two 95 targets.)

There continues to be stark gender disparities in South Africa’s HIV epidemic. On the one hand, there are many more women living with HIV than men – 5.2 million compared to 2.6 million as of mid-2024. On the other hand, slightly more men died of HIV-related causes than women in 2023/2024 – 27 100 men compared to 24 200 women.

Worrying trends

One ongoing area of concern is that many people only start treatment once their immune systems have been severely compromised. In 2023/2024, around 54 000 adults started treatment for the first time with CD4 counts below 200 cells/mm3. A CD4 count above 500 cells/mm3 is generally considered to be healthy. CD4 cells are a type of white blood cell that is vital to the functioning of the immune system. People who start treatment with low CD4 counts tend to have worse long-term outcomes.

The latest Thembisa outputs also contain worrying findings on the extent to which people drop in and out of care. In 2023/2024, an estimated 714 000 people restarted antiretroviral treatment after previously having stopped for at least a month – of these, around 326 000 had CD4 counts below 200 cells/mm3.

Finally, on a more positive note, the latest Thembisa outputs continue to show a rise in life expectancy in South Africa. As shown in the above graph, life expectancy declined severely round the turn of the century, largely due to people dying of AIDS, but then increased over time as antiretroviral therapy started keeping people living with HIV alive. The blip in 2020 and 2021 is due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Note: This article is based on outputs from Thembisa version 4.8 – published in late March 2025. We have quoted 2023/2024 figures since they are based on more data, and thus more reliable than the estimates for 2024/2025. We have rounded some numbers to make the text more accessible. Graphs were made using the R package ggplot2. Spotlight will soon publish an #InTheSpotlight special briefing in which we will unpack the Thembisa 4.8 outputs in more detail.

Republished from Spotlight under a Creative Commons licence.

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Traditional Healers in Rural Mpumalanga Help Diagnose HIV

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Sergey Mikheev on Unsplash

An initiative of Wits University’s MRC/Wits Agincourt Research Unit, the Traditional Healers Project convened two ‘open houses’ at local primary healthcare facilities – Rolle Clinic and Thulamahashe Community Health Centre in rural Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga – in March 2023.

An ‘open house’ is a community and stakeholder gathering hosted at a public health facility in partnership with the Department of Health.

The aim of these sessions is to build on the relationship that the MRC/Wits Agincourt Research Unit has established between local traditional healers, community members, and healthcare facility staff to support the end of HIV through regular HIV counselling and testing.

Traditional healers in public health

The sessions supplement research that began almost a decade ago, which focuses on the role of traditional healers in healthcare access and delivery.

Specifically, this research aims to determine:

  • whether traditional healers can conduct HIV counselling and testing (HCT)
  • whether the patients of traditional healers are willing to undergo HCT that is administered by a traditional healer
  • whether traditional healers and biomedical healthcare workers can work together to help link patients to HIV/AIDS diagnosis and care.

The open house sessions form part of this research and provide a platform where traditional healers and biomedical healthcare workers can come together and build mutual understanding and trust, with a view to linking those who test positive for HIV with healthcare providers who can then administer lifesaving antiretroviral treatment (ART) and care.

15 traditional healers certified HIV counsellors and testers

The open houses drew an audience of more than 150 participants, including 15 traditional healers, local indunas [tribal chiefs], community healthcare workers (CHWs), community members, and representatives from Right to Care (a local collaborating partner on HIV) and the Department of Health.

Mr Wonderful Mabuza, Project Manager at the MRC/Wits Agincourt Research Unit, oversees the open houses and says that the successes to date have far surpassed expectations:

“It is exciting to be part of the group that is doing this work, knowing that we have a lot of people who visit traditional healers in our communities. It’s groundbreaking to have traditional healers trained to provide HIV counselling and testing – and amazing to see community members respond, with some never having tested previously.”

Gogo Singabeni, one of the 15 traditional healers who has completed the programme, says: “I was very excited to be invited to the HIV training, and that we would be certified in HIV testing and counselling. It’s important to show people proof that I am certified to do HIV testing.”

She adds: “The first day of testing [a patient] was very difficult for me. I was even shaking as I was conducting the test. I started with the first client, although I was shaking, and I managed to complete the process according to how we were trained. After the client left, I drew strength in seeing that I am able to do it.”

Partnerships imperative

Dr Ryan Wagner, Senior Research Fellow at the MRC/Wits Agincourt Research Unit, leads the traditional healers programme known collectively as Ntirhisano (Shangaan for ‘working together’).

He emphasises the importance of the Ntirhisano team, traditional healers, community healthcare workers, and the Department of Health collaborating to strengthen the referral system. 

“In order to expand coverage and increase uptake of HIV testing – and thereby contribute to ending new HIV cases – we need to embrace innovative approaches, such as traditional healer-initiated HIV counselling and testing,” says Wagner.

“We have recruited and trained 15 traditional healers in the Thulamahashe/Rolle area who, for the past six months, have been successfully testing their patients for HIV/AIDS. Those who tested positive have been referred to a local clinic or community healthcare worker.”

The Department of Health’s Primary Healthcare Supervisor, Sister Mariah Mkhari, says: “The Department of Health alone cannot do it, but with such collaborations between MRC/Wits and other stakeholders we will be able to conquer HIV. We welcome the initiative, and we hope Wits can expand to other areas in Bushbuckridge and train all traditional healers to test for HIV.”

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Opinion: HIV Investments Remain No-brainers, but Some Things Need to Change

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Miguel Á. Padriñán

By Marcus Louw for Spotlight

Making the case for governments and donors to pump money into the HIV response has become more difficult over the last decade. This is partly a result of the notable successes we’ve had – for example, in 2022, HIV-related deaths in South Africa were down to less than a fifth of what it was in 2005. There is clearly some justification for the point of view that HIV simply isn’t the crisis it used to be.

That said, it is also true that about 8 million people in South Africa are living with HIV. This number will continue to rise in the coming years as the rate of new HIV infections is much higher than the rate of HIV-related deaths. Barring a major scientific breakthrough, all these millions of people will require antiretroviral medicines for the rest of their lives, both for their own health and to reduce onward transmission of the virus. In this context, a failure to maintain and improve HIV treatment and prevention programmes will have catastrophic consequences.

There is also increasing competition with other areas of urgent need. In recent years, climate change and COVID-19 have understandably made the headlines much more frequently than HIV. There is also a slow shift underway in South Africa’s disease burden, away from HIV and tuberculosis toward non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes and hypertension.

Still a no-brainer

Despite these shifts, there is good reason to think that spending money on HIV continues to offer excellent value for money. For example, according to a recent report by Economist Impact (part of the Economist group that also publishes the Economist magazine), for every dollar spent on HIV in South Africa from 2022 to 2030, it is estimated the country will see GDP gains of over $7.

We also have a good idea of the impact and cost-effectiveness of specific HIV-related interventions. According to the most recent version of the South Africa HIV investment case, published in December 2021, condom provision continues to be the most cost-effective intervention in South Africa, followed by antiretroviral treatment, infant testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men, and general population testing. Voluntary medical male circumcision has become less cost-effective as coverage levels have risen in recent years, but remains worth it. In fact, the investment case leaves no doubt that most of the key interventions needed to combat HIV in South Africa are both worth it and affordable.

Despite all this, according to a recent UNAIDS report, global investment in HIV has taken a knock in recent years, and in 2022 we were essentially back down to the same level as in 2013. Such reductions constitute a crisis in HIV funding, especially in poor countries that are heavily reliant on donor funds. In South Africa, key interventions like antiretroviral treatment and condoms generally remain funded, but public sector health budgets have been shrinking in real terms, something that is no doubt impacting the HIV programme.

Time to leverage HIV investments

This brings us back to the knotty problem with which we started – while HIV remains a large and serious problem and most investments in combatting HIV remain excellent value for money, making the case for these investments has become more difficult due to competing priorities and the fact that, in South Africa at least, people are not dying of AIDS at nearly the rate they did 20 years ago. How to best make the case in a way that convinces governments and donors to put up the money in this context is a devilishly hard problem.

There are certainly no simple solutions.

What there is, though, is some indications that a too narrow focus on HIV is becoming a harder sell. There is also a risk that as funds for HIV get harder to come by, and the clamour for funding NCDs becomes more pronounced, we may end up pitting diseases against each other in a way that benefits no one.

Given the incredible acuteness of our HIV crisis ten and 20 years ago, a laser focus on HIV was right and necessary. Today, however, the reality is that many people living with HIV are also living with NCDs like diabetes or hypertension, something that will become only more so as the population of people living with HIV grow older. It is clear that we need to start doing a better job of integrating care and treatment for all the different diseases one person might have – the key is to do so in a way that doesn’t drop the ball when it comes to HIV.

In some areas progress is already clear – medicines distribution via pickup points closer to people’s homes were fuelled by the need to get ARVs to people, but is now also being used to distribute medicines for some NCDs. In other areas, such as data systems, integration however remains limited and the systems available for HIV and TB remain superior to those for NCDs.

There appears to be a broader policy shift along these lines. As recently reported on Devex, the Global Fund to Fight HIV, TB, and Malaria’s current five-year strategy explicitly endorses and promises funding for integrating non-communicable disease services with TB and HIV programmes. UNAIDS’s new ‘The path to end AIDS’ report also makes the right noises on the “deeper integration of HIV and other health services”, as does South Africa’s National Strategic Plan for HIV, TB, and STIs 2023 – 2028.

Of course, the road from policy-level ambitions such as these and change on the ground can be a long one – to some extent such integration has been on the cards for over a decade. But, rising NCD rates, an ageing population of people living with HIV and comorbidities, and funding pressures mean that getting integration right is now more urgent than ever.

One of the arguments for HIV-specific funding has always been that HIV investments have benefited healthcare systems more generally, even if that was not the primary intention. Maybe in this next act of the HIV response then, the key will be to stop thinking of health system improvement as a side effect of HIV investments and instead lean into the idea of explicitly leveraging what we’ve done and will continue to do in HIV to improve health systems more generally.

Republished from Spotlight under a Creative Commons Licence.

Source: Spotlight

Categories : HIVTags :

Abbott Partnership to Bring Affordable Blood-based HIV Self-test Kits to SA

On By ModernMedia

HIV testing is essential across the continuum of care but too often unavailable, unaffordable, or inaccessible. Abbott, the global leader in diagnostics and the fight against HIV, is partnering with Population Services International (PSI) and Unitaid to make HIV self-testing (HIVST) available at an affordable and accessible price. An initial 400 000 tests will be distributed within Africa.

This vital partnership serves as an early market access vehicle to enable affordable access to high-quality self-test kits in high HIV burden settings with a dire need for access to healthcare services, while mitigating risks such as increased supply chain costs and custom fees. People who test positive will undergo confirmatory testing and will be linked to antiretroviral treatment, keeping them healthy and helping reduce further transmission to others.

“With millions of people living with HIV worldwide, many of whom who do not know their status, receiving a diagnosis is a vital first step in accessing treatment”, says Bassem Bibi, divisional vice president, for Abbott’s rapid diagnostics business for EEMEA. “This is why this partnership is so important to Abbott as it reinforces our commitment to enabling people in Africa to live healthier, fuller lives, by improving testing capabilities through high quality and affordable blood-based HIV self-tests.”

“Self-testing has shifted the paradigm for HIV testing.  The HIV Self-Testing Africa (STAR) Initiative amassed compelling evidence that HIVST can reach more people than traditional diagnostics. It offers an alternative option to people living with HIV to find out about their status and to access anti-retroviral treatment services. Self-testing is a critical entry point to HIV prevention services for those testing negative, including the delivery of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP). It is also useful for screening in health facilities and to keep services going during COVID-19 and any future emergencies. We require more product options to meet the growing demand,” said Dr Karin Hatzold, Director of the STAR Initiative Project and Associate Director of HIV/TB Programs at PSI. “This important partnership under the early market access vehicle will make it easier for countries to acquire products and embed them in health systems. This will ensure that self-test kits are affordable to those who want to access them.”  

The Abbott HIV self-test kits will be distributed strategically to communities with inadequate access to healthcare services and will help build capacity to meet the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets for 2025. The 95-95-95 targets stipulate that 95% of people living with HIV know their status; 95% of people who know their status are on antiretroviral therapy; and 95% of people on treatment have suppressed viral loads.

“Self-testing has helped us reach beyond health centres and make testing easier. This is critically important for vulnerable groups who are often at higher risk of HIV but may also be hesitant to access health services for fear of stigma, discrimination, and violence,” said Dr Philippe Duneton, executive director of Unitaid. “Making quality self-testing kits widely available and affordable is vital to reaching people at risk of HIV with the opportunity to test privately and access life-saving care.”

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Opinion: Keep an Eye on Quality as We Rush to Test People for HIV

On By ModernMedia
HIV themed candle
Image by Sergey Mikheev on Unsplash

By René Sparks

As we approach World AIDS Day on 1 December, healthcare providers will be offering HIV screening and testing as part of a comprehensive health service.

The theme for this year’s World AIDS Day is: “Equalise and Integrate to End AIDS”.

One aspect in which more equality is arguably needed is between the quality of HIV testing services and aiming to test as many people as possible.

Progress against targets?

It is estimated that 13.9% of South Africa’s population is living with HIV and that the absolute number of people living with HIV in the country has increased from 3.8 million in 2002 to 7.8 million in 2021. This number has continued to rise since the death rate has declined much more rapidly than the rate of new HIV infections.

The most widely used measure of a country’s HIV response in recent years has been the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. These aim at 90% of people living with HIV knowing their status, 90% of those diagnosed started on ARVs, and 90% of those on ARVs being virally suppressed by 2020. The goal post has now shifted to 95-95-95.

Earlier this year, Health Minister Dr Joe Phaahla said that in South Africa we are on  94-78-89.

This indicates that we are close to reaching the first 95. It also suggests that our HIV testing efforts have generally been a success, including the introduction of HIV Rapid Testing and HIV Self Screening as HIV testing models. But, as we collectively meet these targets, it is important to focus on the quality of HIV rapid testing to ensure that we align with HIV testing standards.

Focus on quality

The quality of HIV Rapid testing to some extent depends on laboratories, but often it is driven by HIV counsellors and service delivery NGOs. As a public health professional managing the National HIV Testing Quality Assurance and Laboratory Systems Strengthening programme, seconded to the Department of Health through SEAD Consulting, it is my job to support NGOs, the Department of Health, and the Department of Correctional Services in implementing quality assurance of HIV Testing and in improving the laboratory systems between health facilities and the National Health Laboratory Service.

As someone who has worked in all aspects of primary healthcare, I am painfully aware of the shortcuts sometimes taken, but also of the impossible expectation of ‘quick services’ linked to HIV testing.

As a healthcare provider, I received peer mentorship upon entry into primary healthcare settings – but I later learnt that this mentorship provided incorrect guidance on HIV testing.

This gave me sleepless nights and fuelled my desire to support other healthcare workers in conducting quality HIV testing to avoid possible misdiagnosis and delays to critical treatment. It is imperative that everyone understands their role when it comes to HIV testing and that we move away from siloed approaches in prevention and curative spaces but integrate both quality and ambitious targets. One cannot be seen in isolation from the other.

So, how are HIV tests supposed to be done?

Firstly, there are multiple things to look out for when having an HIV test done. HIV testing should be conducted by a trained healthcare worker, using nationally approved test kits which are kept in temperature-controlled spaces. Test kits should not be exposed to extreme heat of more than 30 degrees Celsius as it fries the device, which could lead to incorrect results.

Secondly, each test has an expiry date, its own pipette (plastic or glass device to collect the blood), its own buffer (liquid that assists the blood to move across the test strip) and its own incubation time (time it takes for a reaction or outcome of the test).

When being tested, the fingertip needs to be cleaned with an alcohol-based swab, and then the first drop of blood should be wiped away to avoid contamination of the sample. The second drop of blood is then collected with the specific pipette to the required amount for that test. Once collected, the blood is inserted into the well of the test and the required number of drops of buffer is added. Lastly, the timer is set to the manufacturer’s time for each test kit.

The time is of utmost importance, as reading it too early could lead to false HIV-negative results, whereas reading it too long after the time could lead to false HIV-positive results. It is for this reason that each HIV tester needs to have a digital timer that is able to count down and sound an alarm when the time has been reached.

Additional aspects linked to the quality of HIV testing are Personal Protective Equipment (Aprons, gloves, and sanitiser) – these need to be worn by the HIV tester as part of infection control. Also important are ice packs – if you are being tested in a gazebo in the community, the HIV tester needs to ensure that the HIV test kits are kept cool to avoid malfunction or damage.

These are the basics we must get right.

The quality of HIV testing is as important as getting the test done. Too often short cuts, time constraints, and lack of staff impact the quality of testing. To be in a position where we can really celebrate the numbers – the progress – it is essential that we must get these basics right.

*Sparks is a Public Health Professional at SEAD consulting, a co-convenor at the School of Public Health, University of the Western Cape, a Senior Aspen New Voices Fellow, and a Global Atlantic Fellow for Health Equity.

Republished from Spotlight under a Creative Commons 4.0 Licence.

Source: Spotlight