Tag: fourth wave

Categories : COVID HospitalsTags : 1 Comment

Netcare Reports Less Severe COVID in Fourth Wave

On By ModernMedia
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In a news release by Netcare, the company’s CEO Dr Richard Friedland said that more than three weeks after the discovery of the new Omicron variant in South Africa, data across its hospitals and primary healthcare facilities are demonstrating important early trends.

“Having personally seen many of our patients across our Gauteng hospitals, their symptoms are far milder than anything we experienced during the first three waves,” commented Dr Friedland.

“Approximately 90% of COVID patients currently in our hospitals require no form of oxygen therapy and are considered incidental cases. While we fully recognise that it is still early days, if this trend continues, it would appear that with a few exceptions of those requiring tertiary care, the fourth wave can be adequately treated at a primary care level.”

Rates of community transmission and hospital admission possibly decoupled
During the first three waves, the rate of hospital admissions rose in tandem with the rate of community transmission (the number of people testing positive). Dr Friedland noted that, in the first three waves of the pandemic, Netcare treated 126 000 COVID patients across its 49 acute hospitals, of which 55 000 (44%) patients required admission and 26% of these patients were treated in High Care and Intensive Care (ICU). Significantly, all COVID patients admitted were sick and required some form of oxygen therapy. The high admission rate, as well as the high percentage of patients requiring ICU or High Care indicates the severity of cases during the first three waves.

“As of today we have 337 COVID positive patients admitted (72% in the Gauteng area and 18% in KwaZulu-Natal). Of these patients approximately 10% (33 patients) are on some form of oxygenation versus 100% in the first three waves. Eight of these patients (2%) are being ventilated and of these, two are primary trauma cases that are also COVID positive.”

Netcare’s policy is to test all patients for COVID before or on admission. Patients admitted for other primary diagnoses or surgical procedures who test positive for COVID] but do not require any form of oxygenation are considered to be incidental COVID cases, which currently accounts for 90% of COVID cases now in Netcare hospitals.

“During the first three waves, when the overall community positivity rate breached 26% across South Africa, we were inundated with COVID admissions to hospital. Within Netcare we had over 2000 COVID patients in hospitals during the first wave, over 2 250 patients in hospital during the second wave and over 3000 patients in hospital during the third wave. At present the 337 patients represent a fraction compared to previous waves,” said Dr Friedland.

“The very rapid rise in community transmission as compared to previous waves may partially explain this relatively low hospital admission rate. However, there does appear to be a decoupling in terms of the rate of hospital admissions at this early stage in the evolution of the fourth wave,” suggested Dr Friedland.

Majority of patients unvaccinated
Dr Friedland added that of a total of 800 COVID positive patients that were admitted since 15 November, 75% of patients were unvaccinated. Netcare has seen seven deaths over this period in this group of patients, of which four may be ascribed to COVID. These four patients were 58 to 91 years of age and had significant co-morbidities. Of these patients, three were not vaccinated.

Dr Friedland observed that COVID patients admitted since 15 November are on average younger than those seen during the first three waves. Over 71% are under 50, with an average age of 38.5. This compares to only 40% below 50 in the first three waves, with an average age of 54.

Virtually all patients have presented with mild to moderate flu-like symptoms, including a blocked or runny nose, headache and a scratchy or sore throat and have been treated symptomatically.

Dr Friedland reiterated that the best way to support South Africa remains to take COVID extremely seriously and to be as cautious as ever.

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NICD Issues COVID Increase Warning

On By ModernMedia
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Over the past week, an increase in the 7-day moving average for new COVID cases and the percentage testing positive in Gauteng has been observed by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), particularly in Tshwane amongst 10–29 year olds.

Additionally, the NICD has recently identified a cluster amongst the 20–44 age group at an institute of higher education in Tshwane. “We are monitoring these trends to see if these increases persist,” comments NICD Acting Executive Director, Prof Adrian Puren. He continued, “Localised increases in case numbers (clusters) are not unexpected, however, it is hard to say whether the increases indicate the start of a widespread resurgence.”

The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a large extent drove previous waves: Beta in the second wave and Delta in the third wave. “Genomic sequencing in South Africa has, to date, not yet detected the emergence of any new variants which are making up an increasing proportion of the sequences,” Dr Puren added. Molecular sequencing has some inherent delays in processing, due to transport of samples and the time taken to process them. In spite of any possible new variants emerging in the future, the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains unchanged and individuals are encouraged to wear masks, practice hand hygiene, maintain social distancing and to gather in well ventilated spaces.

At present the National Department of Health reports that 41% of adults in South Africa have received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine, with 35% fully vaccinated. “It is difficult to predict the magnitude and timing of a potential COVID resurgence, however, we implore the unvaccinated to get the COVID vaccine, especially the elderly and those with comorbidities,” urged Dr Michelle Groome, Head of the Division of Public Health Surveillance and Response. She added that vaccination and prior infection confer good protection against developing severe disease, and while there might be an increase in future case numbers, the number of hospitalisations and deaths are expected to be less severe compared to prior waves.

“As the endemic endures, I would like to reassure the public that the NICD continues to acutely monitor trends in case numbers, positivity rates and hospitalisations,” Dr Puren concluded.

Source: NICD

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A Smaller Fourth Wave Predicted for South Africa as Flu Cases Spike

On By ModernMedia
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A fourth wave of infections is likely for South Africa but its impact probably won’t be as severe as during earlier surges, as shown by new modelling, according to BusinessTech.

Factoring in sero-prevalence surveys and other data, it appears that an estimated 60% to 70% of the population has already contracted COVID, which along with vaccinations will provide protection from severe disease, the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium said in an online presentation on Wednesday.

Even in its worst-case scenario, deaths and hospitalisations during a fourth wave were projected to be substantially lower than during previous surges.

Though current caseload for the country is “incredibly low”, it is still “very hard to commit to say South Africa is over the worst” of the COVID pandemic, said Harry Moultrie, a senior epidemiologist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, which coordinated the modelling.

“It’s going to be a bumpy ride,” he said. “We don’t know where this virus is going to take us. We will still be seeing hospital admissions and deaths related to Covid for years to come.”

South Africa;s seven-day rolling average of new infections has fallen below 300, much reduced from a third-wave peak which hit nearly 20 000 in July.

To date, South Africa has had 2.93 million confirmed cases of COVID, with 89 504 deaths, although excess death numbers indicate the true toll may be much higher. About 34% of the nation’s 39.8 million adults have been fully vaccinated.

While some countries in the northern hemisphere such as Germany are seeing severe fourth and even fifth waves of infection driven by the spread of the delta variant, that’s not a good indicator South Africa will follow a similar path because the strain has already spread widely in the country, explained Gesine Meyer-Rath, a member of the modelling consortium.
“We have paid in a way with high deaths and a lot of destruction” during previous waves, Meyer-Rath said. “We don’t think we will have a super-fast case increase again” unless a highly transmissible new variant emerges, she said.

While the outlook for the fourth wave is brighter, the past few weeks has seen a sharp rise of influenza cases, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) reported.

A high number of cases had been seen from the beginning of the month, including influenza-like illness and pneumonia hospitalised cases at surveillance sentinel sites.

The NICD added that there had been clusters of influenza cases reported in schools and workplaces.

The NICD’s Cheryl Cohen said: “The increase in influenza this summer, which is not the typical time for the influenza season in South Africa, is likely the result of the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID combined with other factors such as reduced immunity because flu has not circulated since 2020 and 2021.”

Sources: Eyewitness News; BusinessTech

Categories : COVIDTags :

A Fourth Wave in the Festive Season?

On By ModernMedia
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Health experts are warning that even while the COVID vaccination programme is speeding up, with vaccinations passing the 7 million mark, a fourth wave of infections could still be possible before the Christmas holidays.

The government’s vaccine rollout has been long delayed, including a false start where one million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine were sold on due its inefficacy against the then-dominant Beta variant. Compounded with vaccine hesitancy, it is only now that the vaccination programme is starting to gain ground. Still, many of these in the most vulnerable group are still awaiting their vaccinations.

Back in January, experts were already warning vaccination delays would result in a deadly third wave – a warning that proved all too true.

“It’s a concern to us and we have to get the herd immunity up as fast as possible, and we also have to protect the most vulnerable people in the community. And that’s why we started with the roll out to older people, and not enough have come forward and that’s why we are now messaging the younger population, please bring the elderly amongst your family and your friends, your community, for vaccination,” said Dr Nicholas Crisp of the Department of Health.

Last month, at the Moseneke inquiry into whether elections could be held under lockdown, Wits University vaccinologist Prof Shabir Madhi and the head of the SA National Aids Council, Dr Fareed Abdullah, also expected a fourth wave to arrive later in the year – putting paid to any election plans. The two experts both predicted a fourth wave in later October.

“The peaks are almost six months apart. We don’t know when exactly the third wave will peak, probably over the next few weeks, and we’ll see that six months regularity and if that continues, then we can expect a fourth wave a bit sooner than earlier suggested,” said Prof Madhi.

Professor Francois Venter, director of Ezintsha at Wits health sciences meanwhile, said he expected a fourth outbreak of the coronavirus could hit South Africa around November. Future COVID waves in South Africa hinge on the vaccine rollout – and who is being vaccinated is important, not just how many.

Meanwhile, the Western Cape is experiencing vaccine shortages as cases spike there. The province’s premier David Winde said in a statement: “The fact that there is such enthusiasm to get vaccinated is great news, but we understand it is also very frustrating when it is not possible to be vaccinated as soon as possible.

“The fact that the demand is far outstripping our current supplies means that we are experiencing pressures at some of our sites. We please ask for your patience and understanding.”

Source: Eyewitness News