Tag: fifth wave

Categories : COVIDTags :

South Africa on Cusp of Fifth Wave as Public Apathy Mounts

On By ModernMedia
Image by QuickNews

South Africa is now on the cusp of a fifth wave, experts warn, as indicators rise and new variants begin to circulate. Social media monitoring indicates a level of public apathy.

After a period of reduced cases, cases rose for three consecutive days, prompting concern. Health Department deputy director-general, Nicholas Crisp, noted possible explanations.

“It may be associated with one of the sub-variants of Omicron, certainly that is what’s dominant at the moment but it also might be just because we are all a bit lax at the moment, we don’t wear our masks so diligently,” he said.

Crisp said that they would be watching the data closely, before pronouncing on whether this was indeed the start of the fifth wave.

“We are not sure if this is the variant that’s going to do whatever is going to happen in the fifth wave, what we are seeing at the moment is what we call a flare-up,” Crisp said.

Wastewater monitoring has seen an uptick in coronavirus levels, according to the NICD’s weekly brief [PDF]. The BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants have been observed but it is not clear what impact they will have on the fifth wave. The Delta variant has been sequenced in wastewater, but the significance of this is still unclear.

Gauteng has reported the highest weekly incidence at 27.4 per 100 000 people, followed by Western Cape (23.4 per 100 000), and KwaZulu-Natal (13.4 per 100 000). However, testing rates are down in a number of provinces. The highest incidence is among young teenagers.

As of 25 April, 1954 new cases with a 19.3% positivity rate were recorded by the NICD.

The Health Department’s Vaccine Social Listening progamme has seen a significant drop in engagement across social media, down by 50% on Twitter, 60% on Facebook. Engagements with digital news articles are down 70%. Fears over a fifth wave have been dismissed on social media as “fear mongering” and there is a belief that “covid-19 is over”.

Business Leadership South Africa chief executive Busi Mavuso said the fifth wave will test the government’s new COVID regulations.

Writing in her weekly open letter, Mavuso noted South Africa is currently in the 30 day transition period from the end of the state of disaster on 5 April and the new National Health Act regulations.

She noted some risk, with mistakes from earlier regulations being built upon. However, increased background immunity levels was credited with the reduced impact of the Omicron wave in hospitalisation and deaths. Based on the assumption that the new wave will be less impactful, economically damaging measures can be avoided.

Mavuso added that the previous waves have proven that the country can find the best balance in managing the pandemic and the economy if there is full consultation so that the consequences of regulations can be understood and planned for. “I look forward to engaging our public sector counterparts to find that balance.”

Wits University’s Professor Shabir Madhi said that with a clear increase in cases, the country was on the cusp of a resurgence. The country will however be much better positioned with higher immunity levels and a demonstrated decoupling of infections and disease severity.

Further lockdowns would likely be unnecessary, given how past lockdowns have repeatedly failed.

Categories : COVIDTags :

20% of South Africans Still Lack Immunity as Fifth Wave Approaches

On By ModernMedia
South African flag with COVID theme
Image by Quicknews

In an interview with 702, CSIR senior researcher Dr Ridhwaan Suliman warned that 20% of South Africans still do not have any immunity to COVID, either from vaccination or prior infection. Since the start of the pandemic in South Africa, he has been tweeting his graphs of infections and explaining the science to the public.

Explaining the figure, he said: “It’s an extrapolation of recent research studies that show sero-prevalence levels across the country, up to about 80% currently. That means levels of immunity of people having previous infections, so natural immunity, plus acquired immunity through vaccination. So based on the 80% sero-prevalence levels, it means there’s still 20% that are susceptible… and 20% of South Africa’s population leaves 12 million people who don’t have levels of immunity or sero-prevalence currently.”

This number is however greatly increased from a previous survey conducted in January 2021, which reported a 19.1% rate.

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1506576605556219906

He pointed out that this leave South Africa with a large number of people who are immune-naïve to COVID, who are therefore at risk of more severe consequences such as hospitalisation and death. However, the high levels of immunity means that, as seen in the Omicron wave, outcomes are reduced in severity.

Interviewer Bruce Whitfield asked Dr Suliman his opinion of prospective waves, as evidenced by increasing infections in countries like the US and China, and indeed, his own observations of queues starting to build up outside mobile COVID testing stations.

Dr Suliman replied that although the infections have been driven by the highly transmissible Omicron B.A.2 variant which is also dominant in South Africa, it “hasn’t resulted in a further uptick or resurgence following our fourth wave of the original Omicron strain, and so we’re currently in an ‘inter-wave’ period with low levels of transmission.”

He says that the situation is encouraging, with hospitalisations at their lowest levels seen since before the first wave in May 2020, but that this is still an inter-wave period.

Regarding when the fifth wave would be, Dr Suliman pointed out that each of the previous four waves “have been very cyclical or regular, with three months in between each wave.” Based on this, he said that he expects another wave is likely around the end of April or beginning of May.

However, he said that this should not be looked on with fear “because even with a surge in high levels of infection we do have high levels of population immunity which we hope will continue, and we will have less severe outcomes of hospitalisation and death even with those high levels.”

Source: 702

Categories : COVID Medical IndustryTags :

Life Insurance Premium Hike on the Cards for the Unvaccinated

On By ModernMedia
Coffin in hearse at a funeral
Photo by adrianna geo on Unsplash

After a staggering increase of R24.9 billion in claims from COVID, South African life insurers are faced with little option but to implement a premium hike on policies for the unvaccinated. Death rates among unvaccinated people could remain elevated even as the pandemic eases, despite the lower severity of Omicron.

The Association for Savings and Investment SA (Asisa) provided death claims data from 1 April 2021 to 30 September 2021, a period which covered the third COVID wave (May to September). Compared to the same pre-pandemic period in 2019, there was a 53% surge in claims was reported, with a more than doubling of value of death claims. There were 565 522 claims, totalling R44.42 billion, compared to the pre-pandemic period’s 369 892 claims of R19.53 billion.

Though deaths were greatly reduced in the fourth wave, with Asisa acknowledging “anecdotal evidence” showing reduced severity from the Omicron variant, there was still “overwhelming evidence” that COVID mortality risks are far higher for the unvaccinated. Asisa’s data reflects that of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), which shows a huge increase in the number of excess deaths over that period.

This information comes as the government debates easing lockdown measures even as various institutions warn of an impending fifth wave, which according to Absa bank could come as early as next month. However, Absa noted that its life claims were much reduced over the fourth wave as compared to the third, and therefore expects the fifth wave to be less severe.

Hennie de Villiers, the deputy chair of Asisa’s life and risk board committee, said that the importance of life insurance cover had been clearly demonstrated. “The reality is that most of us know at least one person who lost his or her life due to COVID. We also know of many more people who lost their income during the pandemic, highlighting the importance of having access to savings.”

He cautioned that, “While the death rate has been lower during the fourth wave than in previous waves due to vaccinations and the emergence of the Omicron variant, death claims rates have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. Also, less than 50% of our adult population has been vaccinated.

“There is overwhelming evidence that the risk of severe illness or death is significantly lower in those who are fully vaccinated.”

He added in a later statement that if the situation does not change and vaccinations are not embraced by the country, insurers may have “little choice but to adjust premiums in line with the higher risk presented by someone who is not vaccinated and therefore more likely to die from COVID”.

De Villiers said a “staggering” 1.59-million death claims were received in the 18 months from 1 April 2020 to 30 September, with life insurers paying out benefits of R92 billion.

Group life insurance premiums have already increased for the unvaccinated, De Villiers pointed out. Employers with mandatory vaccination policies are meanwhile benefitting from preferential rates.

When unvaccinated status is combined with age and comorbidities, premium increases, this resulted in premium increases of as much as 100% and in some cases coverage was even declined.

Source: Business Live