In China, there are signs that the latest wave of COVID brought about by the easing of lockdown measures alongside a surprisingly low vaccination rate may be more severe than official reports indicate.
A recent spate of suspicious deaths among Chinese celebrity has prompted alarm among citizens, BBC News reports. In December, 40-year-old opera singer Chu Lanlan died, which came as a shock to many, given her young age.
Her family said they were saddened by her “abrupt departure”, but did not give details of the cause of her death.
China’s scrapping of many “zero COVID” regulations has resulted in a surge of cases, and there reports of hospitals and crematoria becoming overwhelmed. Yet China has only reported 22 COVID deaths since December, based on its own strict criteria which now only allow for death from respiratory illnesses such as pneumonia.
The World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday warned that the country was under-representing its COVID statistics, especially deaths. Chinese officials denied this.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a media briefing that China had transparently and quickly shared COVID data with the WHO, adding that China’s “epidemic situation is controllable”.
“Facts have proved that China has always, in accordance with the principles of legality, timeliness, openness and transparency, maintained close communication and shared relevant information and data with the WHO in a timely manner,” Mao said.
While many countries have likely under-represented COVID deaths, including the United States, the extent appears to be much greater in China.
Back in January of 2022, Forbes took a critical look at China’s official figures, with a death rate at the time of 0.32 per 100 000 population compared to the US’ 248 per 100 000 – a rate 800 times lower higher which beggars belief.
China used these figures to position itself as the world leader in the response against COVID, the New York Times noted.
The director of Beijing’s Institute of Respiratory Diseases admitted in a TB interview that the number of deaths among the elderly was “definitely more” so far this winter than in past years, but stressed that critical cases remained in the minority.
This week the People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official newspaper, urged citizens to work towards a “final victory” over COVID and dismissed criticism of the previous zero-COVID policy.
A new study published in PLOS ONE estimates that over a million lives were lost in Russia to the COVID pandemic. In the study, the researchers also introduce an improved methodology for future pandemics, which counts a victim’s remaining number of expected years of life lost.
Calculating COVID pandemic mortality is crucial for future epidemiological and policy decisions. Getting a reliable estimate is however complicated by incomplete or inadequate registration data, difficulties in determining the primary cause of death, or challenges in tracking down indirect effects.
This is especially the case in Russia, where mortality estimates from COVID showed a high degree of uncertainty, with varying estimates reported by different studies within and outside of Russia. The country has also received international attention due to the especially high reported mortality compared to other parts of the world. To improve estimates on the human cost of the pandemic in Russia, an international team of researchers led by IIASA conducted the most detailed analysis on pandemic mortality in the country to date.
“While national figures show that excess mortality in Russia is perhaps among the highest in the world, there is a wide degree of regional variation that deserves further analysis,” says Stuart Gietel-Basten, a researcher at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and a coauthor of the study. “Such variation is key to devising better public health strategies to mitigate both the ongoing impact of COVID, and to rebuild and reshape health systems after the pandemic is over.”
The researchers used the concept of ‘excess mortality’ that looks at the difference between the actual number of deaths and what would have been expected if there was no pandemic. Unlike other measures, excess mortality includes deaths that may have stemmed from lockdowns, restriction on movement, postponed operations, and so on, giving a much more comprehensive and reliable estimate.
The team used the latest data released from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service and calculated excess mortality for Russia and its regions for 2020 and 2021, and for 2020 also assessing mortality by age, sex, and rural-urban residence. In 2020 and 2021, the researchers estimated over one million Russian lives lost to COVID.
“A number of researchers within Russia and outside had more or less similar estimates,” says Sergei Scherbov, lead author of the study and a researcher in the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program. “However, due to the advanced population projection methodology and software that we have developed at IIASA, we were able to make population projections for all regions, subdividing urban and rural populations, as well as gender and age groups. This allowed us to produce a very detailed estimate of excess mortality from COVID in Russia and its regions.”
One of the study’s main findings was that different regions within the country differed greatly in mortality. In 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level ranged from 27% to 52%, with urban regions generally faring worse. The researchers suggested that apart from population density, socio-cultural, economic and, perhaps, geographic differentials could have contributed to the differences.
“Regions of the Northern Caucasus reporting high excess mortality are known for their tradition of elderly living in larger households of extended families together with their children and descendants,” explains Dalkhat Ediev, study coauthor and researcher in the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program. Such a tradition might have contributed to higher social exposure and, hence, higher losses.”
The study also introduced a new measure called the Mean Remaining Life Expectancy of the Deceased, showing how many years on average those whose death was among the excess deaths lost. They found that for Russia as a whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived on average for a further 14 years.
“This finding disproves the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining — especially for females,” notes Scherbov.
The new and improved estimates will not only help policymakers in case of future decisions on mitigation strategies, but also take a major methodological step forward, helping us get a clearer view of pandemics in the future.
There is a view being promoted that COVID didn’t hit Africa as badly as the rest of the world. The reason for this, as recently expressed in an article by Boniface Oyugi in The Conversation, was the effective and well-coordinated response of African governments.
We understand the desire to find good news on the continent. But, on balance, the very little evidence available shows that COVID has hit Africa hard. The continent is highly diverse with over 50 states, so broad generalisations should be treated cautiously but, with an exception or two, there is little evidence of an effective response to the COVID pandemic. For one thing, Africa has the lowest vaccination rate of any continent.
Oyugi uses the WHO’s official COVID infection and death statistics to claim that the continent fared better than elsewhere. These state that as of late July, less than 2% of global cases and less than 3% of global deaths occurred in Africa, which has about 17% of the world’s population. (Oyugi also cites a study which pretty much says the same thing.)
COVID test statistics and confirmed COVID deaths don’t paint an accurate picture of how seriously the pandemic has hit a country (see here). If you don’t measure something properly, you can’t conclude that it’s a small problem. COVID tests are typically only administered with any regularity to a small, predominantly better off, part of a country’s population, and countries that test more tend to find more cases. Official COVID death tolls typically count people who have died in hospital with a confirmed positive test result. But it often doesn’t happen this way, especially on a continent with large rural populations and under-resourced hospitals.
Excess deaths: a vital measure
This is why the most important measure of how hard COVID has hit a country is the excess death toll. By excess deaths, we mean the number of deaths that occurred above what you’d expect given recent historical mortality. In sub-Saharan Africa, the only country that has a system capable of reliably estimating this is South Africa. Every week since the beginning of the epidemic, the Medical Research Council (MRC), using death certificate data provided by Home Affairs, has diligently analysed excess deaths. (Many countries wealthier than South Africa do not have as good a system, so it’s something to be proud of.)
The MRC researchers calculate that there have been over 320 000 excess deaths in South Africa since May 2020 (as of July 2022). As they’ve explained, conservatively 85% of these are COVID deaths. It may be as high as 95%. We can conclude that close to 300 000 people have died of COVID in South Africa. Over the past two years about 1 in 200 people in the country have died of this new infection.
The Economist has been reporting excess deaths by country. It states: “Among developing countries that do produce regular mortality statistics, South Africa shows the grimmest picture, after recording three large spikes of fatalities.”
Official deaths are much lower than excess deaths
But if you look at South Africa’s official, and much less accurate, COVID death toll you get a very different picture: Then we’re only 65th worst in the world (source: Worldometer deaths per million people). Lesotho is in 167th place, suggesting it has had a very small epidemic. Is it plausible that an area with a porous border entirely surrounded by South Africa has a completely different epidemic? (See this set of tweets – by one of the authors of South Africa’s weekly mortality report – that explains how the little mortality data we have from Lesotho suggests it had a serious pandemic.)
What about Namibia at position 74 in the Worldometer list, Botswana at 89, Zimbabwe at position 143 and Mozambique at position 190? Is it plausible that this ordering, almost in reverse order of industrial development, accurately reflects how these countries were affected by COVID?
Depending on your bias, you can approach these statistics in two ways. You can be very optimistic and see this as evidence of a smaller epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Or you can be realistic and acknowledge that the official numbers are likely very badly undercounted.
We can’t know for sure though because nearly all African governments did not have the systems in place to count excess deaths.
Most African countries need much better death registration systems
Attempts to estimate excess mortality in most African countries are based on almost no data. To the extent that there is data, it supports the view that the numbers have been badly undercounted. For example, a study published in the British Medical Journal, albeit with many caveats, found death rates in developing countries were twice those of rich countries.
During the height of the AIDS pandemic in the 2000s there was much optimism that the massive influx of foreign aid in response could be used to build better health systems. Bits and pieces of evidence do suggest health on the continent has improved. But it’s very disappointing that most countries on the continent still do not have the vital registration systems in place to measure mortality with decent accuracy. This is one of the most important measures of how a population is doing.
By claiming that African governments have responded well to COVID, when there’s no proper evidence to support this, we fail to hold politicians accountable. We also create the impression that institutions like the World Health Organisation and the African Union’s African Centre for Disease Control are more successful than they’ve actually been. This is a disservice to the vast majority of people living in Africa.
Geffen is GroundUp’s editor. Professor Venter is an infectious diseases clinician and head of Ezintsha at Wits University.
After a staggering increase of R24.9 billion in claims from COVID, South African life insurers are faced with little option but to implement a premium hike on policies for the unvaccinated. Death rates among unvaccinated people could remain elevated even as the pandemic eases, despite the lower severity of Omicron.
The Association for Savings and Investment SA (Asisa) provided death claims data from 1 April 2021 to 30 September 2021, a period which covered the third COVID wave (May to September). Compared to the same pre-pandemic period in 2019, there was a 53% surge in claims was reported, with a more than doubling of value of death claims. There were 565 522 claims, totalling R44.42 billion, compared to the pre-pandemic period’s 369 892 claims of R19.53 billion.
Though deaths were greatly reduced in the fourth wave, with Asisa acknowledging “anecdotal evidence” showing reduced severity from the Omicron variant, there was still “overwhelming evidence” that COVID mortality risks are far higher for the unvaccinated. Asisa’s data reflects that of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), which shows a huge increase in the number of excess deaths over that period.
This information comes as the government debates easing lockdown measures even as various institutions warn of an impending fifth wave, which according to Absa bank could come as early as next month. However, Absa noted that its life claims were much reduced over the fourth wave as compared to the third, and therefore expects the fifth wave to be less severe.
Hennie de Villiers, the deputy chair of Asisa’s life and risk board committee, said that the importance of life insurance cover had been clearly demonstrated. “The reality is that most of us know at least one person who lost his or her life due to COVID. We also know of many more people who lost their income during the pandemic, highlighting the importance of having access to savings.”
He cautioned that, “While the death rate has been lower during the fourth wave than in previous waves due to vaccinations and the emergence of the Omicron variant, death claims rates have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. Also, less than 50% of our adult population has been vaccinated.
“There is overwhelming evidence that the risk of severe illness or death is significantly lower in those who are fully vaccinated.”
He added in a later statement that if the situation does not change and vaccinations are not embraced by the country, insurers may have “little choice but to adjust premiums in line with the higher risk presented by someone who is not vaccinated and therefore more likely to die from COVID”.
De Villiers said a “staggering” 1.59-million death claims were received in the 18 months from 1 April 2020 to 30 September, with life insurers paying out benefits of R92 billion.
Group life insurance premiums have already increased for the unvaccinated, De Villiers pointed out. Employers with mandatory vaccination policies are meanwhile benefitting from preferential rates.
When unvaccinated status is combined with age and comorbidities, premium increases, this resulted in premium increases of as much as 100% and in some cases coverage was even declined.
COVID heat map. Photo by Giacomo Carra on Unsplash
According to an analysis of excess mortality published in The Lancet, COVID’s global death toll could be as much as three times higher than official estimates.
From the start of 2020 to the end of 2021, official estimates of the global deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 5.9 million, however this new estimate puts excess deaths at a staggering 18.2 million.
The highest number of excess deaths were reported for India (4.07 million), more than eight times its 489 000 reported COVID deaths, followed by the U.S. (1.13 million), where the official count reached 824,000 by the end of 2021. According to the study, the excess mortality rate in the US (179.3 per 100 000) was about on par with Brazil (186.9 per 100,000). South Africa’s mortality rate was 293·2 per 100 000, just below the rate for Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (308.6 per 100 000). Sub-Saharan Africa’s mortality rate was 101.6 per 100 000, as a result of significant regional variation.
First author Haidong Wang, PhD, of the University of Washington, said in a statement: “Understanding the true death toll from the pandemic is vital for effective public health decision-making. Studies from several countries including Sweden and the Netherlands, suggest COVID-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths, but we currently don’t have enough evidence for most locations.”
The massive undertaking derived models using all-cause mortality reports for 74 countries and territories and 266 subnational locations, which included 31 locations in low and middle-income countries. These locations reported all-cause death from 2020-2021, and up to 11 years prior. Excess mortality reports were also obtained for the 9 South African provinces 12 Indian states.
Overall, the global rate of estimated excess mortality from COVID was 120.3 deaths per 100 000. A total of 21 countries exceeded 300 per 100 000, with Bolivia having the highest mortality rate at 734.9 per 100 000. Bulgaria, Eswatini, North Macedonia, and Lesotho had the next highest mortality rates. Iceland had the lowest excess mortality rate (-47.8 per 100 000). Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, and Taiwan also had negative excess mortality rates.
Behind India and the U.S. for most excess deaths were Russia (1.07 million), Mexico (798 000), Brazil (792 000), Indonesia (736 000), and Pakistan (664 000). These seven countries were noted to account for more than half of the excess deaths globally during the study period.
Changes in mortality rates also reflected the impact of other diseases suppressed by the same measures that limited the spread of COVID. The researchers wrote: “The most compelling evidence to date of a change in cause-specific mortality in the pandemic period is the decrease, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, in flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) deaths seen in the months of January to March, 2021,” they added. “Given the scarce and inconsistent evidence of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on cause-specific deaths, and the extremely scarce high-quality data on causes of death during the pandemic, our excess mortality estimates reflect the full impact of the pandemic on mortality around the world … not just the deaths directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
Limitations included different modelling strategies being used to estimate excess mortality rate, and excess mortality rate by week or month was not estimated.
