The health department called the increasing number of COVID cases across South Africa “worrying” on Wednesday night, adding that although close, the requirements had not yet been met for a third wave.
In a statement, the department said that it had observed an increase in the weekly number of new cases over the past seven and 14 days compared to the previous corresponding periods. Increases have been seen in all provinces — particularly the North West and Gauteng. There was also an increase in the number of COVID-related deaths over the past seven days.
However the department maintained that these increases had not yet met the requirements of the “resurgence threshold”. Dr Zweli Mkhize however said that numbers would not go down unless containment measures were put in place.
“There was an increase in new cases from 8593 cases in the preceding seven days (April 26-May 2) to 12 531 cases in the past seven days (May 3-9), constituting a 46% increase. The 14-day comparisons also showed that the cases increased from 17 017 in the preceding 14 days to 21 124 cases in the past 14 days, an overall 24% increase. All provinces showed a positive percentage increase, with Northern Cape 68% up in the past seven days followed by Gauteng at 63%, Limpopo at 47%, North West at 42% and Western Cape at 39%.
“The new Covid-19 related deaths increased by 18.22% in the past seven days (May 3-9) to 318 from 269 in the preceding seven days (April 26-May 2). However, the 14-day comparison showed the deaths decreased by 28.93% to 587 in the past 14 days compared to 826 in the preceding 14 days. The cumulative case fatality ratio is 3.43% (54 735 of 1 596 595),” the department said.
Hospital admissions fortunately “have not shown an increase”. As of Wednesday, the detection rate for COVID tests was 7.45%. Adam Lowe, a member of the ASSA COVID working group, said that based on modelling and historical parallels, three scenarios are possible for a third wave: an early, less severe, wave in May driven by school holidays; a later, more severe third wave; or a sudden and severe, but unlikely, third wave.
“As much as these figures are worrying, our resurgence dashboard, which was developed by the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium, which is updated thrice a week, still shows that we have not as a country reached a resurgence threshold, though some districts in the country are fast approaching the threshold,” the department said.
The department of health added that it was working with provinces to update their resurgence plans, which mainly focus on case management, contract tracing, oxygen availability, bed capacity, respiratory support equipment and human resources.
It also said that the main drivers of the new wave will be one or both of the resurgence of new variants and growing fatigue to measures such as social distancing and masking. Genomic surveillance is being conducted to catch the emergence of new variants.
“So we want to assure South Africans that we have not yet hit the third wave, however we are at risk and we hence need to be on heightened vigilance,” the department said.
Source: Times Live
