Obesity rates are set to skyrocket, with one in six children and adolescents worldwide forecast to be obese by 2050, according to a new study. But with significant increases predicted within the next five years, the researchers stress urgent action now could turn the tide on the public health crisis.
The research, led by Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) and published in The Lancet, found a third of children and adolescents will be overweight (385 million) or obese (360 million) within the next 25 years. The forecast equates to 356 million children aged 5–14 years and 390 million aged 15–24 years with one in six facing obesity.
The global obesity rate for those between 5-24 years old tripled from 1990 to 2021, rising by 244 per cent to 174 million, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in obesity have failed a generation of young people. As of 2021, 493 million children and adolescents were overweight or obese.
MCRI Dr Jessica Kerr said if immediate five-year action plans were not developed, the future was bleak for our youth.
“Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic,” she said, adding that obesity drives a whole range of diseases. Prevention is key as obesity rarely resolves after adolescence.
“Despite these findings indicating monumental societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action across the entire developmental window to reduce obesity, our results provide optimism that this trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030.”
The analysis, released on World Obesity Day, used the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study to estimate the latest overweight and obesity levels and forecasts in 204 countries and territories.
The United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru and Tonga are forecast to have the highest prevalence while China, Egypt, India and the US will have the greatest number of children and adolescents with obesity by 2050.
In Australia, children and adolescents have experienced some of the fastest transitions to obesity in the world. Girls are already more likely to be obese than overweight. Overall, by 2050 for those aged 5-24 years, 2.2 million are forecasted to be obese and 1.6 million overweight.
Globally, there will be more boys, 5–14 years, with obesity than being overweight by 2050.
“Without urgent policy reform, the transition to obesity will be particularly rapid in north Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and in the Caribbean, where the rise is concurrent with high population numbers and limited resources,” Dr Kerr said.
“Many regions have historically had to focus on preventing undernutrition and stunting in children. To prevent a public health emergency from this newer threat, an immediate imperative should be creating national surveillance surveys of obesity in children and adolescents in every country.”
Dr Kerr said older adolescent girls, aged 15-24 years entering their reproductive years, were a priority population for intervention.
“Adolescent girls who are obese are a main focus if we are to avoid intergenerational transmission of obesity, chronic conditions and the dire financial and societal costs across future generations,” she said.
“With this age group increasingly being out of school and cared for by adult services, we need to focus interventions at the community and commercial level.”
