Over 28 million more years of life were lost than expected in 2020 in 31 upper-middle and high-income countries, according to a University of Oxford-led study published in the BMJ.
Save for a handful of exceptions, 37 countries examined including the US had more premature deaths than expected in 2020, with a higher rate in men than women.
Understanding the full impact of the COVID pandemic requires counting excess deaths, and analysing how premature those deaths are. Years of life lost (YLL) is a more detailed assessment of COVID’s impact on populations as it measures both the number of deaths and the age at which death occurs.
Researchers used this measure to estimate the changes in life expectancy and excess years of life lost from all causes in 2020. They compared the observed life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 with historical trends in 2005-19 in 37 upper-middle and high-income countries.
Between 2005 and 2019, life expectancy at birth rose for both men and women in all the countries studied. In 2020, a drop in life expectancy was seen in both men and women in all countries save New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a life expectancy gain and Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea saw no change.
The biggest life expectancy drop was in Russia (−2.33 years in men and −2.14 in women), the US (−2.27 and 1.61), Bulgaria (−1.96 and −1.37), Lithuania (−1.83 and −1.21), Chile (−1.64 in men), and Spain (−1.11 in women). Years of life lost declined in most countries in both men and women between 2005 and 2019, except Canada, Greece, Scotland, Taiwan, and the US.
In 2020, years of life lost were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan and New Zealand, where there was a reduction in years of life lost, and Iceland, South Korea, Denmark, and Norway, where there was no evidence of a change in years of life lost. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million more than expected (17.3 million in men and 10.8 million in women).
The highest excess years of life lost (per 100 000) were in Russia (7020 in men and 4760 in women), Bulgaria (7260 and 3730), Lithuania (5,430 in men and 2,640 in women), and the US (4,350 in men and 2,430 in women).
Overall, excess years of life lost in 2020 were over five times greater (2510 per 100 000) than those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015 (458 per 100 000).
The excess years of life lost were relatively low in people under 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US where the excess years of life lost was more than 2 000 per 100 000.
Most countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America were excluded due to insufficient data, and researchers could not account for other factors, such as socioeconomic status, regional disparities, and race or ethnicity. However, the findings are largely in line with previous studies, and the use of authoritative national mortality data, together with a validated analytical approach, suggests that the results are robust.
“Our findings of a comparable or lower than expected YLL in Taiwan, New Zealand, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and South Korea underscore the importance of successful viral suppression and elimination policies, including targeted and population based public health policy interventions,” the researchers wrote. “As many of the effects of the pandemic might take a longer time frame to have a measurable effect on human lives, continuous and timely monitoring of excess YLL would help identify the sources of excess mortality and excess YLL in population subgroups.”
Source: University of Oxford
