In a study of more than 40 000 COVID cases, those infected with the delta variant have about twice the hospitalisation risk as those infected with the alpha variant. The findings were published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
The risk of hospitalisation or emergency hospital care within 14 days of infection with the delta variant was 1.45 times greater than the alpha variant. This is the first study reporting hospitalisation risk for the delta versus alpha variants based on cases confirmed by whole-genome sequencing.
Dr Gavin Dabrera, one of the study’s lead authors and a Consultant Epidemiologist at the National Infection Service, Public Health England, said: “This study confirms previous findings that people infected with Delta are significantly more likely to require hospitalisation than those with Alpha, although most cases included in the analysis were unvaccinated.”
The delta variant emerged in India in December 2020 and early studies found it to be up to 50% more transmissible than the alpha variant, which first appeared in the UK. A preliminary study from Scotland previously reported a doubling of hospitalisation risk with the delta variant over the alpha variant and it is suspected that delta is associated with more severe disease. The previous study used patients’ initial PCR test results and determined which variant they had by testing for a specific gene that is more common in the delta variant.
The researchers analysed healthcare data from 43 338 COVID-positive cases in England between 29 March and 23 May 2021. During the study period, there were 34 656 cases of the alpha variant (80%) and 8682 cases of the delta variant (20%). While the proportion of delta cases in the study period overall was 20%, it eventually encompassed two thirds of new COVID cases in the week starting 17 May 2021 (65%), effectively becoming the dominant strain in England.
Around one in 50 patients were admitted to hospital within 14 days of their first positive COVID test (2.2% alpha cases; 2.3% delta cases. After accounting for factors that are known to affect susceptibility to severe illness from COVID, including age, ethnicity, and vaccination status, the researchers found the risk of being admitted to hospital was more than doubled with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant (2.26-fold increase in risk).
It has been shown in multiple studies that full vaccination prevents both symptomatic infection and hospitalisation, for both alpha and delta variants. Indeed, in this study, only 1.8% of COVID cases (with either variant) had received both doses of the vaccine; 74% of cases were unvaccinated, and 24% were partially vaccinated. With the small number of vaccinated people being hospitalised, it is not possible to statistically compare hospitalisation risk between alpha and delta in such cases, so the results of the study apply to unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cases.
One of the study’s lead authors, Dr Anne Presanis, Senior Statistician at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said: “Our analysis highlights that in the absence of vaccination, any Delta outbreaks will impose a greater burden on healthcare than an Alpha epidemic. Getting fully vaccinated is crucial for reducing an individual’s risk of symptomatic infection with Delta in the first place, and, importantly, of reducing a Delta patient’s risk of severe illness and hospital admission.”
Limitations to the study included some demographic groups possibly being more likely to seek hospital care, which could have biased the results, and there may have been changes in hospital admission policy during the period of the study, although adjustment for demographics and calendar time should have minimised such bias. The authors also did not have access to information about patients’ pre-existing health conditions, which are known to affect the risk of severe illness from COVID. By using age, gender, ethnicity, and estimated level of socioeconomic deprivation, they were able to account for this.
Source: Medical Xpress
