El Niño is Here. Are KZN Clinics Ready?

By Christina Pitt for Spotlight
With El Niño conditions expected to bring a hotter, drier summer, Spotlight asks whether the KwaZulu-Natal government is ready to keep health services running and protect vulnerable communities during the extreme weather that may be on the way.
For Phumelele Shabalala, extreme weather has made an already difficult life harder.
The 46-year-old has lived in Vimbukhalo, a rural village near Bergville in KwaZulu-Natal’s Drakensberg foothills, for 24 years.
Shabalala grows vegetables to sell and help feed her four children. But during a dry spell in 2024, she says streams began drying up and her maize crops started dying.
Another resident in the area told Spotlight that they had lost cattle to dehydration and untreated wounds caused by sun exposure, threatening livelihoods dependent on farming.
In nearby Stulwane village, 28-year-old Nondumiso Nokwanda Sigubudu has experienced a different kind of devastation.
Heavy rainfall damaged her home in October 2025 and again in October this year, she says. Part of a wall remains open, exposing her family to the cold and leaving their home unsecured. Sigubudu believes the conditions have affected her two children’s health, saying they frequently suffer from colds and fevers.
Extreme weather can also make it difficult for residents to get medical care.
A mobile clinic visits Vimbukhalo once a month for check-ups and chronic medication refills. But Shabalala says it sometimes cannot reach the village when heavy rain makes roads impassable, leaving residents waiting for another visit or seeking alternative care.
Such disruptions are particularly concerning as El Niño, a natural climate pattern that can affect rainfall in southern Africa and increase the risk of drought, is forecast to strengthen towards the end of 2026.
KwaZulu-Natal has a long history of droughts and floods. According to a Council for Scientific and Industrial Research report, the province recorded 85 declared weather- and climate-related disasters between 2007 and 2021 — more than any other province.
For vulnerable communities in rural KwaZulu-Natal, this raises an urgent question: how prepared is the province to protect them and keep essential health services running when extreme weather strikes?
El Niño, KZN and what’s at stake
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns around the world.
South Africa’s seasonal outlook indicates an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the country between December 2026 and February 2027, Dr Nosipho Zwane of the South African Weather Service said during a health department webinar in October.
But drought is not inevitable.
“El Niño is often associated with hotter and drier summer conditions. However, this does not happen exactly the same way every time,” Zwane said.
Speaking to Spotlight, University of Pretoria meteorology professor Willem Landman cautions that seasonal forecasts cannot predict individual storms or flash floods months ahead. Even a drier-than-average season can bring intense downpours and localised flooding.
Although El Niño is a natural phenomenon, its effects can be compounded by climate change. The World Meteorological Organization says there is no evidence that climate change is increasing the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, but a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify associated extremes, including heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Hotter conditions increase the risks of heat exhaustion, heatstroke and worsening chronic illnesses, particularly among pregnant and postpartum women, young children, older people and outdoor workers, says public health specialist Celeste Madondo of the Foundation for Professional Development.
Research in rural KwaZulu-Natal has also linked heat exposure to adverse pregnancy outcomes. One study found a “clear relationship between maternal heat exposure during the month preceding conception and miscarriage”.
But the health risks of extreme heat are not always immediately apparent.
“The difficulty with heat is that you can’t see it. You can feel it, but you can’t necessarily see its effects,” Madondo says. “With droughts and floods, the damage is visible. You can see the flooding. You can see that your house is gone.”
Dam levels versus rural realities
While extreme heat poses health risks of its own, reduced rainfall can also threaten the water supplies and livelihoods that rural communities depend on.
South Africa’s major dams were 97.7% full on average in October, compared with 88.3% in KwaZulu-Natal. But Landman says these figures do not necessarily reflect water availability in rural communities dependent on streams, boreholes and rainfall.
For farming households, less water can mean fewer crops, livestock losses and reduced income. As Landman puts it: “If you don’t plant, you don’t have food.”
Drought can also make it harder for people to stay on HIV treatment. In KwaZulu-Natal, almost 1.6 million people were receiving antiretroviral treatment in 2025, according to Thembisa, the leading mathematical model of HIV in South Africa.
Research by the Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI) examined the impact of drought on HIV treatment in rural KwaZulu-Natal, analysing records from more than 40 000 people at 17 clinics between 2010 and 2018. The study found that drought was associated with fewer patients taking their medication as prescribed or staying in HIV care, with some recovery after the drought.
A related study, based on interviews with 27 people living with HIV in rural Hlabisa, in the uMkhanyakude district, explored how the 2015–2016 El Niño-related drought affected access to treatment.
Collins Iwuji, a professor of climate, environment and health at AHRI and co-author of both studies, says food insecurity was among the challenges patients faced.
“During the drought, the price of food was also going up and they didn’t want to take their pills on an empty stomach, because of the potential side effects,” Iwuji explains. “So what some of them did was they skipped the pill.”
Others missed clinic appointments while collecting water or lost contact with their usual clinics after moving with their livestock in search of water.
Iwuji cautions that their work could not prove that drought caused these treatment interruptions, although participants’ accounts suggested that drought-related hardship played a role.
Asked whether the province’s HIV services are now better prepared for climate-related disruptions, Iwuji says improvements have been “partial rather than systematic”.
Measures such as allowing people living with HIV to collect three to six months of medicines at a time and community medicine collection points can reduce the need for frequent clinic visits. But Iwuji says these services expanded significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than in response to climate-related emergencies.
Is KZN ready?
The question of preparedness extends beyond HIV services. The devastating floods of April and May 2022 exposed serious problems within the province’s preparedness for extreme weather.
The Presidential Climate Commission described the government’s response as largely reactive, identifying poor coordination between departments, inadequate preparation, and gaps in getting early warnings to vulnerable communities.
Problems were also evident within the health system. A 2026 study involving staff at a KwaZulu-Natal provincial tertiary hospital found that the facility lacked specific plans for weather-related emergencies when researchers collected data in 2023. Staff also reported shortages of personnel and resources, difficulties obtaining emergency supplies and poor communication.
In November 2023, the National Department of Health, working with the World Health Organization (WHO), began establishing a network of Public Health Emergency Operations Centres (PHEOCs) to strengthen preparedness and coordination.
Despite these efforts, a draft health-sector readiness assessment presented by the national health department’s Director of Epidemiology and Surveillance, Mbhekiseni Khumalo, at a webinar in October suggests significant gaps remain.
The country scored 61% across 11 areas of preparedness. Rapid response teams and communication with communities lagged at 45%, while coordination received just 28%. Health service delivery performed better at 82%. The assessment reflects preparedness nationally rather than in KwaZulu-Natal specifically. The findings are preliminary, with supporting evidence attached for only 10% of the indicators assessed.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the provincial health department says it has put measures in place to prepare for extreme weather emergencies.
“The department receives weather warnings through the Provincial Disaster Management Centre, the South African Weather Service application and the National PHEOC WhatsApp channel,” says provincial department spokesperson Ntokozo Maphisa.
This information is then shared with all district health emergency teams, which then put response measures into action.
Maphisa says the department has also developed backup plans for floods, heatwaves, fires and other emergencies, with instructions for healthcare workers. The department also works with other sectors to maintain essential health services, according to Maphisa.
From weather warnings to action
One challenge is ensuring that weather warnings reach healthcare facilities and communities in time for them to act.
A R46.5-million WEATHER project, involving the University of KwaZulu-Natal and international partners, aims to improve how flood notifications reach clinics and hospitals.
“Published research has already shown that official warnings did not reach some eThekwini community health centre managers in 2022. Closing that gap between warning and facility action is at the centre of the system we are designing,” says one of the project’s principal investigators, Professor Saloshni Naidoo.
The research also found that the centres’ emergency plans lacked clear instructions for responding to weather-related disruptions.
Naidoo explains that the proposed system would combine official weather warnings with practical advice for health workers, such as checking medicine supplies and contacting patients on chronic treatment. These aspects of the system still need to be developed with the provincial health department.
The system is being designed to reach rural communities with poor internet connectivity.
Maphisa confirms that senior provincial health managers are involved in the project, which is expected to be tested in early 2027 and evaluated later that year. It will therefore not be operational during the coming summer.
Can hospitals and clinics withstand the next disaster?
The condition of clinic and hospital buildings is another important part of preparing for extreme weather.
The provincial health department has been repairing facilities damaged by severe storms, including the 2022 floods.
Its Strategic Plan 2025/26–2029/30 lists 47 repair projects involving roofs, gutters and drainage systems. At the time of the plan, four were complete, 19 under construction, 18 at the tender stage and six still being planned.
But repairing damage does not necessarily make facilities more resilient to future extreme weather.
The Presidential Climate Commission has warned that rebuilding damaged infrastructure without making it better able to withstand extreme weather could leave it vulnerable to future disasters.
Iwuji says making healthcare facilities more resilient starts with assessing the risks each building faces.
He says the WHO has developed a framework for assessing facilities’ vulnerability to floods, storms, extreme heat and drought, as well as their capacity to cope with these threats. Such assessments can help determine what improvements each facility needs.
Extreme heat presents another challenge, particularly in ageing healthcare buildings.
“The buildings are old. The aircons don’t work. It’s not maintained,” Iwuji says. “Now if you have an overcrowded facility that’s hot, the healthcare workers are also experiencing the effects of the heat. But we expect them to ensure that they serve clients to the best of their ability under these conditions.”
The KwaZulu-Natal health department did not answer Spotlight’s questions about whether the repairs include measures to make healthcare facilities more resilient to future extreme weather.
Iwuji acknowledges that the province has made progress in improving coordination between departments since the 2022 floods, but questions how far these changes have translated into action. “There is movement towards creating some resilience. But in terms of practical implementation and what that means, that is what I haven’t seen yet,” he says.
*This article was first published by Spotlight – health journalism in the public interest. Sign up to the Spotlight newsletter.









